Nrog siab -kawg hluav taws xob fabrics nyob rau hauv luv luv, yog vim li cas fiberglass ua txoj kev nyuaj tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv AI?

I. Zuag qhia tag nrho kev lag luam toj roob hauv pes

 

Fiberglass yog ib qho tseem ceeb substrate ntawm inorganic non-cov ntaub ntawv tshiab yog hlau, nthuav tawm lub ntiaj teb oligopoly, nrog Tuam Tshoj tuav kiag li dominance (sau rau ntau tshaj 70% ntawm cov peev txheej ntau lawm).

 

• Ntiaj teb no toj roob hauv pes: tsib lub tuam txhab saum toj kawg nkaus (CR5) account rau ntau tshaj 62% ntawm kev ua lag luam. Tuam Tshoj Jushi (22.1%) nyob rau hauv thawj lub ntiaj teb, ua raws li Owens Corning (13.8%), Nitto Boshoku (8.7%), Nippon Sheet Glass (7.2%), thiab Sinoma Science & Technology (Taishan Fiberglass, 13%).

 

• Sab Hauv Tsev: Tus neeg ua si tseem ceeb nrog ntau tus neeg sib tw muaj zog, peb lub tuam txhab sab saum toj (CR3) tshaj 70%. Tuam Tshoj Jushi (32.48%) ruaj khov tuav txoj haujlwm, ua raws li Sinoma Science & Technology (Taishan Fiberglass, 15.68%) thiab Chongqing International (14.75%).

 

• Core Barriers: Cov cuab yeej cuab tam hnyav (kwv yees li RMB 100 lab ib 10,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm ntau lawm), cov cuab yeej siv siab (tank furnace, formulation, spinneret, etc.), thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig siab.

 

II. Kev lag luam tam sim no

 

1. Khoom siv, Kev xav tau, thiab voj voog

 

• Kev Pab Cuam Tshuam: Cov peev txheej hauv tsev yuav tshaj 8.7 lab tons hauv 2025, nrog rau cov tuam txhab ua lag luam tswj kev tsim khoom thiab tshem tawm cov peev txheej dhau los.

 

• Cov Kev Xav Tau: Cov khoom siv vaj tse / cov khoom siv hauv tsev ib txwm muaj lub hauv paus ruaj khov, thaum peb qhov kev tawm tshiab ntawm cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, lub zog cua, thiab lub zog tshiab tsheb tau ntsib kev loj hlob tawg. Kev lag luam tau rov qab los ntawm lub voj voog hauv qab, nrog rau qhov ntim thiab tus nqi nce los ntawm 2024-2026.

 

• Cov txiaj ntsig tau zoo: Kev lag luam qis qis hauv xyoo 2023 (cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho kwv yees li 22%), tab sis los ntawm 2025, cov tuam txhab ua lag luam cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho yuav tsum rov qab mus rau 30%-35%, nrog siab - cov khoom muaj nqis ntxiv xws li cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob ntau dua 40%.

 

2. Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb

 

• Kev sib tw homogeneous hauv qis- mus rau- nruab nrab- kev ua lag luam kawg; kev cia siab rau kev ntshuam rau siab - khoom kawg;

 

• Kev vam khom rau cov khoom siv raw xws li siab -purity quartz xuab zeb tshaj 40%, ua rau cov saw hlau tsis muaj zog;

 

• Tseem ceeb heev kom txo tau cov pa roj carbon emissions yuav tsum tau upgrade rau ntsuab muaj peev xwm.

 

III. Cov Ntsiab Lus Tseem Ceeb thiab Kev Hloov

 

1. Roving: Feem ntau yog tsav los ntawm kev xav tau ntau ntxiv hauv kev tsim kho, kav dej, thiab kev thauj mus los; ntau lawm muaj peev xwm yog stabilizing, tus nqi yog rebounding, thiab muaj ib tug qauv mus rau ntau dua modulus thiab ntau zog. Cua zog thiab automotive lightweighting yog tsav xav tau.

 

2. Electronic Qib Fiberglass: Ib qho tseem ceeb substrate rau PCBs / tooj liab clad laminates; AI tab tom tsav qhov kev loj hlob tawg ntawm siab- cov khoom kawg xws li Low-Dk ​​thiab Low-CTE; muaj qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom loj, cov nqi nce siab, thiab kev txiav txim rov qab ntau dua 9 lub hlis.

 

3. Cua Fais Fab Fiberglass: Cov hniav loj dua yog tsav kev thov rau siab -modulus fiberglass; kev teeb tsa thoob ntiaj teb tau loj hlob sai, thiab qhov nkag mus ntawm E8 / E9 siab -modulus fiberglass yog nce sai.

 

4. Thermoplastic Fiberglass: Cov khoom siv tseem ceeb rau lub teeb yuag hauv lub zog tshiab; kev siv ib lub tsheb tseem nce ntxiv, nrog rau kev loj hlob txhua xyoo ntau dua 25%, thiab nws tau nkag mus los ntawm cov khoom siv sab hauv mus rau cov khoom siv.

 

5. Tshwj xeeb Fiberglass: Siv nyob rau hauv aerospace, tub rog, photovoltaics, thiab lwm yam .; tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los tshaj 50%; Kev hloov pauv hauv tsev tau nrawm dua.

 

IV. Txoj kev txhim kho

 

1. High-kawg: tsom rau cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob, siab -modulus cua zog xov paj, thermoplastic fiberglass, thiab cov fiberglass tshwj xeeb.

 

2. Green Development: Zero- carbon furnaces, khib nyiab thaum tshav kub kub rov qab, thiab qis- carbon formulations yuav txo tau carbon emissions ib chav tsev los ntawm 15% los ntawm 2030 piv rau 2020.

 

3. Ntiaj teb no: Cov chaw lag luam txawv teb chaws (Tim Nkij teb chaws, Asmeskas, Europe) hla kev lag luam teeb meem; Cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws suav txog ntau dua 30% ntawm Tuam Tshoj Jushi cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho.

 

4. Intelligentization: Cov chaw tsim khoom lag luam thiab cov khoom lag luam ntse txo cov nqi thiab ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo.

 

5. Supply Chain Collaboration: Vertical kev koom ua ke ntawm fiberglass + cua zog, fiberglass + tsheb, thiab fiberglass + electronics.

 

V. Tsis ntev los no cov laj thawj tseem ceeb rau kev nce siab (AI + Lub Zog Tshiab Dual-Engine Drive)

 

1. Kev loj hlob tawg hauv AI Computing Fais Fab (Catalyst Strongest)

 

• AI server PCB siv yog 3-5 npaug ntawm cov PCBs ib txwm muaj; Tsawg-Dk ​​cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob tsawg-dielectric yog qhov xav tau siab thiab muaj kev cuam tshuam kev siv tshuab siab heev; ua ke nrog NVIDIA tus tshiab nti architecture, qhov no ntxiv rau kev thov rau cov xov tooj hluav taws xob tshwj xeeb / ntaub.

 

• High-cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob kawg tsis txaus, thiab cov nqi tau nce siab.

 

2. Tshiab zog sector tsav tag nrho kev loj hlob.

 

• Cua zog: Loj- nplai ntau lawm thiab muaj peev xwm txhim kho siab ua rau muaj kev xav tau siab rau siab -modulus fiberglass, dhau los ua lub hauv paus ruaj khov.

 

• Lub zog tshiab tsheb: Lub teeb yuag yog qhov tsim nyog, ua rau muaj kev loj hlob sai hauv cov khoom siv thermoplastic fiberglass.

 

• Photovoltaics/lub zog cia: Kev thov rau cov khoom sib txuas thiab cov ntaub thaiv npog yog nce.

 

3. Cyclical rov qab + mov optimization.

 

• Tom qab ob - xyoo poob qis, cov nqi qis dua thiab pib rov qab los hauv 2024.

 

• Cov cai yog tshem tawm cov peev txheej tsim tawm, ua kom muaj kev lag luam ntau ntxiv, thiab ntxiv dag zog rau tus nqi ntawm cov tuam txhab ua lag luam.

 

VI. Cov thawj coj tseem ceeb: Tuam Tshoj Jushi vs Sinoma Science & Technology

 

(I) Tuam Tshoj Jushi (600176) - Tus Thawj Coj Hauv Ntiaj Teb Zoo Tshaj hauv Fiberglass

 

• Kev Ua Haujlwm: tsom mus rau tag nrho cov fiberglass kev lag luam saw, nrog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws tsim muaj peev xwm (tshaj li 1.5 lab tons) thiab kev lag luam feem ntawm 22.1%.

 

• Cov qauv kev lag luam: Roving (60%), hluav taws xob ntaub (25%, lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws), cua zog xov paj (10%), thiab tshwj xeeb fiberglass (5%). • Core Zoo

 

a. Scale thiab Tus Nqi: Muaj peev xwm ntau dua ob npaug ntawm Sinoma, chav tsev raug nqi ntau dua 500 RMB / tuj qis;

 

b. High-Cov khoom kawg: E9 ultra- siab modulus fiberglass (100GPa, thoob ntiaj teb ua), qis- dielectric hluav taws xob daim ntaub ntawv pov thawj los ntawm NVIDIA;

 

c. Ntiaj teb no: Lub hauv paus hauv tebchaws Iziv thiab Tebchaws Meskas, cov nyiaj tau los txawv teb chaws tshaj 30%, muaj zog tiv thaiv kev lag luam txaus ntshai;

 

d. Ntsuab thiab txawj ntse: Zero- carbon puag hauv Huai'an, kev tsim khoom ntse, ua tus nqi thiab ESG.

 

• 2025 Kev Ua Haujlwm: Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 18.881 billion RMB (+19.08%), cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab niam txiv ntawm 3.285 billion RMB (+34.38%).

 

• Lub tswv yim: tsom mus rau fiberglass, uas tau tsav los ntawm ob qho tib si hluav taws xob daim ntaub thiab cua zog xov paj, nthuav dav -kawg muaj peev xwm. (II) Sinoma Science & Technology (002080) - Cov ntaub ntawv sib txawv platform, ob tus thawj coj hauv fiberglass thiab cua zog.

 

• Kev Ua Haujlwm: Peb lub lag luam tseem ceeb - fiberglass (Taishan Fiberglass, muaj peev xwm 1.4 lab tons, 13% kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb), cua turbine blades (lub ntiaj teb duopoly, 40% kev lag luam share), thiab lithium roj teeb cais (tus thawj coj hauv tsev).

 

• Kev lag luam Fiberglass: Taishan Fiberglass yog lub thib ob loj tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj, nrog rau cov khoom siv npog roving, hluav taws xob ntaub, cua zog xov paj, thiab cov ntaub tshwj xeeb.

 

• Core zoo:

a. Muaj kev sib koom ua ke: sib sib zog nqus sib sib zog nqus ntawm cua turbine hniav thiab fiberglass; 100% tus kheej -muab cua zog xov paj, tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los 35%+;

b. High-Cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob kawg: Lub tuam txhab hauv tsev tsuas yog npog tag nrho cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsawg 1-3 tiam, Q daim ntaub, thiab qis-CTE, muab ntau rau cov tuam txhab ua tooj liab clad laminate;

 

c. Cov txheej txheem sib txawv: Cua fais fab thiab lithium roj teeb cais resonate, muaj kev pheej hmoo muaj zog, thiab muaj peev xwm loj hlob;

 

d. Kev siv thev naus laus zis: Kev siv thev naus laus zis hauv siab -modulus fiberglass (E8 qib, 95GPa) thiab cov fibers tshwj xeeb.

 

• 2025 Kev Ua Haujlwm: Fiberglass kev lag luam net profit ntawm kwv yees li RMB 1.1 billion, tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm RMB 1.818 billion.

 

• Lub tswv yim: High-kawg fiberglass + loj- nplai cua turbine hniav + lithium roj teeb cais lub peev xwm nthuav dav, nrog kev sib koom ua ke kev loj hlob thoob plaws peb lub lag luam loj.