Vim li cas thiaj muaj -kawg hluav taws xob fiberglass daim ntaub dheev dhau los ua ib qho nyiaj nyuaj?
Txawm li cas los xij, ntau tus yuav tsis paub tias tom qab qhov kev xav tau ntawm kev lag luam, qhov kev txheeb xyuas tiag tiag tsis yog hais txog GPUs thiab AI chips lawv tus kheej.
Leej twg yuav tau xav tias qhov "inorganic fiber ntau," yav dhau los pom ntau dua ntawm cov chaw tsim kho thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, tau hloov mus ua "cov khoom siv tswv yim"- siab-kawg hluav taws xob fiberglass daim ntaub- uas tam sim no tau raug saib xyuas los ntawm Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang thiab Apple's supply chain executives?
Thaum lub lag luam tseem tab tom ua kev zoo siab GPU suav lub zog, lub fwj tiag tiag hauv AI kev lag luam saw tau ntsiag to hloov mus rau "lub hauv paus ntawm lub cev" txhawb nqa kev ua haujlwm nti.
Tsab ntawv xov xwm no yuav coj koj los ntawm kev nkag siab tias leej twg tsim cov pob txha muaj zog hauv 1.6T era "kev sib tw caj npab."
I. Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Fiberglass: Lub "Backbone" ntawm High-Performance Inorganic Non-metallic Composite Materials
Fiberglassyog ib qho inorganic non-cov khoom siv hlau fiber ntau ua los ntawm iav, melted ntawm kub kub thiab ces kos. Txoj kab uas hla ntawm ib qho filament feem ntau yog nyob ntawm ob peb micrometers mus rau ntau tshaj nees nkaum micrometers.
Cov yam ntxwv tseem ceeb ntawm fiberglass yog lub teeb yuag thiab lub zog siab, nrog rau lub zog tshwj xeeb tshaj li ntawm cov hlau, kub thiab corrosion kuj, zoo hluav taws xob rwb thaiv tsev, thiab zoo seem stability.
Fiberglass tsis tshua siv ib leeg; Hloov chaw, nws yog siv los ua cov khoom siv txhawb zog hauv cov khoom sib xyaw nrog cov resins thiab lwm yam matrices los ua cov iav fiber ntau reinforced polymer (GFRP) cov khoom sib xyaw, dhau los ua cov khoom siv tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam niaj hnub los hloov cov tsoos hlau thiab cov khoom siv hauv tsev.
Qhov tseem ceeb ntawm fiberglass stems los ntawm nws lub luag hauj lwm irreplaceable raws li "rov qab" ntawm kev lag luam.
Los ntawm kev xa khoom xa tuaj, fiberglass yog nyob rau theem ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, nrog rau cov kev siv qis tshaj plaws ntawm kev lag luam hauv lub tebchaws xws li cov khoom siv hauv tsev, kev thauj mus los, hluav taws xob, hluav taws xob thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, thiab aerospace, suav txog kwv yees li 25%, 24%, 18%, 14%, thiab 11% ntawm kev thov, raws li.
Daim ntawv thov kev sib txawv no ua rau muaj kev lag luam fiberglass nrog ob qho tib si cyclical thiab kev loj hlob. Kev xav tau hauv cov khoom siv hauv tsev ib txwm muaj hloov pauv nrog kev lag luam macroeconomy, tsim kev lag luam lub hauv paus kev voj voog; Thaum qhov kev thov los ntawm cov teb tau tshwm sim xws li cua turbine hniav, lub teeb yuag tshiab lub zog tsheb, thiab AI suav cov cuab yeej siv txuas ntxiv cov qauv kev loj hlob mus rau hauv kev lag luam.
II. Lub AI Computing Power Revolution: Tus Txheej Txheem Leap Tsav Fiberglass Demand los ntawm Quantitative Nce rau Kev Hloov Zoo
Qhov kev thov rau fiberglass uas tau tsav los ntawm kev txawj ntse txawj ntse tsis yog ib qho kev nthuav dav, tab sis qhov zoo ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm qhov qis- kawg mus rau siab - kawg, thiab los ntawm qhov dav dav - lub hom phiaj rau kev tshwj xeeb.
Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb nyob rau hauv qhov tseeb tias qhov kev loj hlob ntawm AI xam fais fab tso cai rau kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov ntim ntim ntim thiab siab - zaus, siab -PCBs ceev tshaj li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ib txwm muaj. High-kawg hluav taws xob- qib fiberglass daim ntaub yog lub hauv paus ntawm lub cev rau kev ua tiav cov ntsuas kev ua tau zoo.
2.1 Tsawg-Dielectric Electronic Cloth (Low Dk/Df): "Signal Highway" rau AI Servers thiab High-Speed Switches
AI servers thiab 800G / 1.6T siab-cov keyboards ceev ua haujlwm ntawm cov zaus siab heev. Thaum cov teeb liab raug xa mus rau hauv PCB, qhov dielectric tas li (Dk) thiab dielectric poob qhov tseem ceeb (Df) ntawm cov khoom siv substrate ncaj qha txiav txim siab lub teeb liab thiab kev sib kis tus nqi. Tus nqi Df ntawm cov tsoos E- iav hluav taws xob daim ntaub tuaj yeem ua tsis tau raws li qhov yuav tsum tau ua; tshwj xeeb formulated low- dielectric electronic daim ntaub yuav tsum tau siv.
Noj NVIDIA's GB200/300 platform ua piv txwv, nws cov PCB specifications tau hloov kho mus rau M8-theem tooj liab- clad laminate. Tom ntej no - tiam Rubin platform yuav tsum ua kom paub ntau ntxiv M9-theem cov ntaub ntawv, ua rau kom muaj zog nce ntxiv hauv kev thov rau kev txhawb nqa cov ntaub fiberglass tsawg. Tam sim no, tus nqi ntawm 7628 hluav taws xob daim ntaub tau nce mus rau plaub qhov sib law liag, nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm ze li ntawm 40%, ua kom pom cov khoom nruj thiab xav tau.
2.2 Tsawg Coefficient ntawm Thermal Expansion Electronic Cloth (Low CTE/T Cloth): Lub "Physical Foundation" ntawm Advanced Ntim
Qhov no yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws thiab nyuaj tshaj plaws hauv AI - tau tsav kev hloov kho ntawm fiberglass xav tau. Raws li AI nti qhov ntau thiab tsawg tau nce ntxiv, piv txwv li, NVIDIA's Rubin GPU tau mus txog 5.5 npaug ntawm lub npog ntsej muag, qhov tsis sib xws hauv cov coefficient ntawm thermal expansion (CTE) ntawm cov nti thiab cov ntim substrate tau dhau los ua lub hauv paus tseem ceeb txwv tsis pub tawm los. CTE ntawm cov nti yog kwv yees li 3ppm / degree, thaum cov tsoos organic substrates yog siab li 15-18ppm / degree, ua rau hnyav warping nyob rau hauv lub siab kub ntawm reflow soldering, ua rau solder sib koom ua ke cracking thiab interface delamination.
Tsawg coefficient ntawm thermal expansion (CTE) hluav taws xob ntaub, paub nyob rau hauv kev lag luam raws li "T-fab," boasts ib CTE tsawg li 3-4 ppm / degree, precisely txuam silicon chips thiab daws teeb meem warpage ntawm cov khoom theem. Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb irreplaceable consumable nyob rau hauv advanced ntim xws li CoWoS.
Tam sim no, lub ntiaj teb T-kev ua lag luam npuag yog tswj hwm los ntawm Nittobo ntawm Nyiv, thiab cov khoom siv tau zoo tshiab tsis xav tias yuav maj mam tsim kom txog thaum xyoo 2027. Institutional kwv yees hais tias lub ntiaj teb no T- npuag khoom-xav tau qhov sib txawv yuav nthuav dav ntxiv mus rau 18% hauv 2026.
Daim ntawv tshaj tawm kev tshawb fawb los ntawm CITIC Securities qhia tias thoob ntiaj teb kev thov rau T- npuag yuav nce los ntawm 9.63 lab meters hauv 2025 txog 20.42 lab meters hauv 2026, ib xyoos -ntawm - xyoo nce ntawm 112%, thiab yuav ncav cuag 69.59 lab meters hauv ib xyoos, nce ntxiv ntawm 2028%.
2.3 Quartz Cloth (Q Cloth): Qhov kawg daws rau 1.6T Era
Thaum tus nqi pauv nce ntxiv mus rau 1.6T, qhov yuav tsum tau dielectric tas li (Df) tus nqi ntawm cov ntaub fiberglass poob qis dua 0.001, tshaj qhov txwv lub cev ntawm cov khoom qis qis - dielectric fiberglass daim ntaub. Quartz fiber ntau daim ntaub, nrog nws tsis tshua muaj dielectric poob (Df < 0.001) thiab ultra-low dielectric ester (CTE) (kwv yees li 0.5 × 10⁻⁶ / degree), tau dhau los ua cov tshuaj zoo tshaj plaws rau 1.6T siab -ceev tooj liab-clad Lub tuam txhab hauv tsev Feilihua tau ua tiav ntsug kev koom ua ke ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam saw ntawm quartz xuab zeb mus rau quartz daim ntaub thiab tau nthuav dav nws cov neeg siv khoom thoob ntiaj teb kom suav nrog siab - tooj liab zoo - clad laminates.
III. Core Expectation Gap: Kev Ntsuas Tus Nqi Ua Haujlwm Hloov ntawm "Cyclical Goods" mus rau "Inflation Goods"
Kev ua lag luam kev nkag siab ib txwm muaj ntawm kev lag luam fiberglass tseem nyob hauv lub hauv paus ntawm "cov khoom siv hauv tsev", tab sis AI- tau hloov cov qauv kev hloov pauv tau hloov kho cov kev lag luam hauv qab cov ntsiab lus. Cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau ntawm high-kawg hluav taws xob fabrics, xws li T- fiber ntau ntaub, qis- dielectric ntaub, thiab Q- fiber ntau ntaub, tau hloov los ntawm "overcapacity" mus rau "nyuaj mov tsis txaus." Kev nthuav dav mus ntev li 2-3 xyoos, thiab cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj kev cuam tshuam yog qhov siab heev, ua rau muaj kev txwv tsis pub siv cov khoom siv tshiab hauv lub sijhawm luv.
Lub caij no, kev ntshai kev yuav khoom hauv kev lag luam downstream tau kis los ntawm chips mus rau cov khoom siv yooj yim. Kaus Lim Kauslim PCB cov tuam txhab tau tso ua ntej- xaj nrog Suav tooj liab-clad laminate (CCL) cov tuam txhab tsib zaug lawv cov kev siv ib hlis ib zaug, thiab xa mus rau qee qhov siab -CCLs kawg tau txuas ntxiv mus rau ntau lub lis piam.
Qhov no txhais tau hais tias high-cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob kawg tau hloov pauv los ntawm "cov khoom siv" mus rau "cov khoom siv tswv yim," thiab lawv cov nqi logic hloov ntawm tus nqi-ntxiv rau tus nqi qis rau cov nqi qis.
IV. Kev lag luam kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes: Siab -End Breakthrough Under Oligopoly Dominance
4.1 Kev sib tw toj roob hauv pes
Kev lag luam fiberglass yog tus cwj pwm los ntawm cov peev txheej hnyav thiab cov cuab yeej thev naus laus zis. Noj roving ua piv txwv, txhua 10,000 tons ntawm lub peev xwm yuav tsum tau kwv yees li 100 lab yuan hauv cov cuab yeej cuab tam peev; ib tug roving ntau lawm kab nrog ib xyoos twg muaj peev xwm ntawm 120,000 tons yuav tsum tau ib tug peev ntawm kwv yees li 1.2 billion yuan.
Cov teeb meem no ib txwm ua rau muaj qib siab ntawm kev lag luam concentration. Thoob plaws ntiaj teb, kev sib xyaw ua ke txhua xyoo muaj peev xwm ntawm rau lub tuam txhab fiberglass loj-Tuam Tshoj Jushi, Taishan Fiberglass (ib lub koom haum ntawm Sinoma Science & Technology), International Composites, Owens Corning (OC), NEC Glass (NEG), thiab Shandong Fiberglass- suav txog kwv yees li 70% ntawm tag nrho lub ntiaj teb.
Hauv tsev, qhov sib xyaw ua ke muaj peev xwm ntawm peb lub tuam txhab fiberglass loj suav txog kwv yees li 70% ntawm kev lag luam hauv tsev. Raws li thawj ib nrab ntawm 2025, Tuam Tshoj Jushi lub peev xwm suav txog kwv yees li 35%, Sinoma Science & Technology kwv yees li 17%, thiab International Composites kwv yees li 14%, nrog rau tsib lub tuam txhab suav nrog ze li 80% ntawm tag nrho cov peev txheej.
Hauv cov khoom siv hluav taws xob (cov xov paj zoo), cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb sib npaug. Lub peev xwm tsim khoom txhua xyoo ntawm tsib lub tuam txhab-Tuam Tshoj Jushi, Kingboard Holdings, Kunshan Bicheng, Taiwan iav Kev Lag Luam, thiab International Composites- suav txog kwv yees li 65% ntawm lub ntiaj teb zoo xov paj tsim muaj peev xwm.
4.2 Cov neeg tsim khoom txawv teb chaws: Cov tuam txhab Nyij Pooj Monopolize siab -Kev lag luam kawg, Kev nthuav dav qeeb tsim cov khoom siv nqus tsev vacuum
① Nittobo: Ntiaj teb no Dominant hauv T-Ntaub
Nittobo yog tus thawj coj tiag tiag hauv ntiaj teb T- ntaub, tsis tu ncua tuav kwv yees li 85% kev ua lag luam. T-fiber npuag (T-fiber) muaj CTE tsawg li 2.9-3 ppm/degree, ua kom zoo sib xws silicon chips. Ua ntej xyoo 2024, tsuas yog Nittobo muaj peev xwm rau kev tsim khoom loj ntawm T-fiber npuag thoob ntiaj teb, tsim kev lag luam monopoly.
Txawm li cas los xij, Nittobo lub voj voog nthuav dav yog ntev li 18-24 lub hlis, nrog yuav luag xoom lub peev xwm tshiab ntxiv rau lub sijhawm luv. Qhov kev thov tawg rau AI suav lub zog tau ua rau muaj kev ntshai yuav poob qis vim nws lub peev xwm tsis muaj zog. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang tsis ntev los no tus kheej tau ya mus rau Nyiv mus xyuas Nittobo, thaum Apple tau nce nws cov neeg ua haujlwm nyob hauv Nyij Pooj rau kev sib tham. Qualcomm tau raug yuam kom tawg los ntawm cov txheej txheem cov khoom siv ib txwm siv los nrhiav lwm txoj hauv kev.
② Asahi Kasei: Tus ncej thib ob hauv siab -End Electronic Fabric
Asahi Kasei yog tus thib ob loj tshaj plaws ntawm high{0}}kawg hluav taws xob ntaub hauv Nyij Pooj tom qab Nittobo, ua ke nrog Nittobo, suav txog ntau dua 70% ntawm lub ntiaj teb siab -kawg hluav taws xob ntaub lag luam. Nws kuj tseem ntsib teeb meem ntawm kev nthuav dav qeeb, nrog rau cov khoom siv tshiab tsawg heev.
③ Owens Corning (OC) thiab NEC iav (NEG): Kev Tawm Tsam Tawm Tsam ntawm Roving Giants
Ob leeg Owens Corning (Tebchaws USA) thiab NEC Glass (Nyiv) yog ib lub ntiaj teb cov tuam txhab fiberglass saum toj kawg nkaus, tab sis lawv cov tswv yim tau dhau los ua kev saib xyuas ntau dua nyob rau xyoo tas los no. Xyoo 2025, Owens Corning tau muag ib feem ntawm nws txoj kev lag luam fiberglass mus rau ib lub koom haum ntawm Is Nrias teb Praana Group. Nyob rau hauv sib piv, txuas ntxiv nthuav dav ntawm Suav tuam txhab uas muag contrast sharply nrog lub tswv yim tawm ntawm cov thawj coj txawv teb chaws.
4.3 Cov neeg tsim khoom hauv tsev: Peb lub tuam txhab muaj zog rov ua haujlwm ruaj khov
① Tuam Tshoj Jushi: Ntiaj Teb Fiberglass Thawj Coj
Tuam Tshoj Jushi yog lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws fiberglass tsim, nrog 23% kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb sib koom hauv hluav taws xob fiberglass. Qhov no yuav nce mus txog kwv yees li 28% tom qab lub hauv paus Huai'an mus ua haujlwm.
Nyob rau hauv 2025, kev muag khoom ntawm fiberglass roving thiab cov khoom mus txog 3.2026 lab tons, thiab kev muag khoom ntawm cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob mus txog 1.062 billion meters, ob qho tib si cov ntaub ntawv siab. Cov nyiaj tau los txhua xyoo tau mus txog RMB 18.881 billion (+19.08%), thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv cuab tau nce mus txog RMB 3.285 billion (+34.38%). Hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2026, cov nyiaj tau los txog RMB 5.282 billion ({11}}%), thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab niam txiv yog RMB 1.267 billion (+73.48%). Cov txiaj ntsig kev loj hlob deb tshaj qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, nrog rau xyoo - ntawm - xyoo nce nyob rau hauv tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm roving thiab hluav taws xob ntaub yog lub hauv paus tsav tsheb.
Hauv qhov siab -kawg sector, Tuam Tshoj Jushi tus kheej -tsim qis- dielectric yarn tau dhau NVIDIA daim ntawv pov thawj, qhia nws lub zog thev naus laus zis nrog kev pom zoo ntawm cov neeg siv khoom tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam saw.
② Sinoma Science & Technology/Taishan Fiberglass: Kev Hloov Pauv hauv T-Ntaub
Taishan Fiberglass, ib lub koom haum ntawm Sinoma Science & Technology, yog thawj lub tuam txhab hauv tebchaws los rhuav tshem Nittobo txoj cai ntawm T- ntaub. Nyob ib ncig ntawm 2024, Taishan Fiberglass qhov qis -expansion coefficient iav fiber ntau cov khoom tiav dhau kawg-cov neeg siv khoom pov thawj, tsav tsheb rov tsim kho ntawm thaj chaw sib tw hauv qhov qis- nthuav dav fiber ntau npuag kev lag luam.
Tam sim no, dhau li ntawm Taishan Fiberglass, lub ntiaj teb tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv fiber ntau tshwj xeeb suav nrog tsuas yog ob peb lub tuam txhab xws li Nittobo, Asahi Kasei, Taiwan Glass Group, thiab cov tuam txhab hauv tsev xws li Honghe Technology, Guangyuan Cov Khoom Tshiab, thiab Feilihua.
③ International Composites: Cov Nyiaj Tau Los Siab Elasticity
International Composites 'nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv lag luam ze li ob npaug rau xyoo-ntawm- xyoo hauv 2025, thiab tau nce 412.94% xyoo-rau- xyoo hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2026, ua rau pom qhov zoo tshaj plaws cov nyiaj tau los elasticity nyob rau hauv lub sector. Lub tuam txhab siv dual - thev naus laus zis txoj hauv kev- cov txheej txheem crucible thiab pas dej ua ke- nyob rau hauv qhov qis- dielectric yarn, muab nws ua tus thawj coj hauv qhov siab no - kawg ntu.
Tsis tas li ntawd, International Composites tuav lub lag luam ua lag luam nyob rau hauv "zaum tus yeej" cov khoom xws li high-kawg insulating yarn, siab -modulus optical cable dej- thaiv fiber ntau xov, thiab dej kho membrane plhaub xov paj, uas yog siv nyob rau hauv ultra- high voltage insulator manufacturing thiab optical cable reinforcing cores.
④ Honghe Technology: Ib Qhov Kev Ntsuas Tshwj Xeeb, Ua kom zoo dua qub, thiab Cov Khoom Siv Hluav Taws Xob Tshwj Xeeb
Honghe Technology yog lub chaw tsim khoom thoob ntiaj teb ntawm nruab nrab - mus rau - siab -kawg hluav taws xob- qib iav fiber ntau daim ntaub, tshwj xeeb hauv ultra- ntaub nyias nyias, super- ntaub nyias nyias, thiab cov ntaub ntawv tshwj xeeb hauv hluav taws xob uas tsis tshua muaj dielectric thiab thermal expansion coefficients.
Cov nyiaj tau los tau nce los ntawm 785% xyoo-rau- xyoo hauv 2025, thiab cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tswv cuab tau nce 354.22% xyoo-rau- xyoo nyob rau thawj peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2026, qhia tau tias muaj kev loj hlob ntawm cov nyiaj tau los.
Lub tuam txhab T-cov ntaub ntawv qhia txog kev ua tau zoo ntawm fiber ntau tau mus txog 2.9-3 ppm / degree, nce mus txog qib Nittobo, thiab xav tias yuav ua rau Nittobo txoj kev ywj pheej. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsawg tau dhau daim ntawv pov thawj los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom xws li Doosan Electronics, Taikwang Electronics, Panasonic Electronics, thiab Tai-Yao Technology, thaum cov khoom siv thermal expansion coefficient tsawg tau dhau daim ntawv pov thawj los ntawm cov tuam txhab xws li Lisennoco, Taikwang Electronics, Shengyi Technology, thiab Doosan Electronics. Kev tsim khoom loj yuav tsum pib hauv 2025.
⑤ Feilihua: Quartz Cloth (Q-Fiber Cloth) Dominates Kev Lag Luam
Feilihua yog ib qho ntawm ob peb lub tuam txhab thoob ntiaj teb uas muaj peev xwm ntau lawm rau quartz iav fiber ntau, thiab tseem yog tus neeg muag khoom ntawm quartz iav fiber ntau rau kev lag luam hauv tsev.
Hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob, lub tuam txhab tau ua tiav ntsug kev koom ua ke ntawm tag nrho cov kev lag luam saw ntawm quartz xuab zeb mus rau quartz daim ntaub. Quartz daim ntaub, nrog nws tsis tshua muaj dielectric poob (Df < 0.001) thiab ultra- qis CTE (kwv yees li 0.5 ppm / degree), tau dhau los ua ib qho kev daws teeb meem zoo tshaj plaws rau 1.6T siab - ceev tooj liab - clad laminates.
